>>> let's get more from david gregory , moderator of "meet the press" and chuck todd , our chief white house correspondent, good morning to you both.
>> good morning.
>> good morning, matt.
>> david , we talked about mitt romney not concentrating on iowa , here he sits at the 11th hour perhaps on the verge of a victory there. how big would it be in terms of momentum and confidence, moving forward?
>> very big. look, he's a weak front-runner. he's been that for a long time. if he has an opportunity to win here, after setting expectations low, after being criticized by governor branstedt of iowa , we'll see if he can get above the 25% but it puts him in good stead in new hampshire where he's well ahead right now.
>> and chuck, rick santorum has made up enormous ground, is this traditional the 11th hour staunch conservative tends to rise toward the top?
>> in the last two major republican nominating contests, two of the last three that's exactly what happened, mike huckabee surged in the last two weeks and overtook then mitt romney , pat buchanan against bob dole in 1996 , bob dole a weak front-runner, same position mitt romney was in. buchanan emerged in the same way and santorum has done it in the way candidates in the past, connect on the personal level on the ground in iowa . at this moment it still seems like he's on an up-trajectory and romney has kind of flat lined.
>> david , circulating in the papers in the last couple of days, why does iowa matter so much? relatively speaking, about 100,000 people are going to take part in these caucuses and yet the way we talk about it, it makes or breaks a campaign. why?
>> well because it is a campaign here that can eliminate some folks. it may not be the case this time. i was at an event in iowa , mind a couple, had two kids about my kids' age, there's something terrific about that. a group of people in iowa who engage seriously and thoughtfully and normally you don't have to have big money politics to compete and win here. that's what's been disappointing, you had nearly $17 million in advertising, most of it negative on the air waves that made it seem like big time primary politics but normally this is a place that if it's got to start somewhere it's a serious place to start.
>> i don't know if either of you is sitting on a fence but get off it. the last question, chuck, one, two, three, what are we going to be talking about tomorrow morning , the finish order?
>> i think it's a coin flip between mitt romney and rick santorum and depends on turnout. if this is a values electorate, more concerned about social issues and the economy, more concerned about connecting on a gut level, that's good for santorum . if it's a high turnout, above the record turnout from four years ago, that is solely focused on beating president obama , then mitt romney will have a good night. the guy that's sitting in number three no matter what happens is probably ron paul .
>> david , how do they finish, one, two, three?
>> romney withed into turnout, good weather, more moderates caucusing, in a pretty good position but he comes out well, even if he doesn't beat santorum and if paul is in the mix somewhere, it's not seen that act necessarily follows on the road.
>> david gregory and chuck todd , thanks very much. busy day ahead. good luck.
Source: http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/45855147/
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